EU Cohesion Policy V3.1 Identification Report
Run: 2026-02-08 15:35:18 CET | Commit: 1c08ca7

Executive Summary

Preferred estimator: cross_section IV (Z4_90). Headline estimator selected from candidate instruments using IV first-stage strength (headline first-stage F=15.65). Headline outcome is gdp_pc_real_growth.

Regions
398
Year span
1986-2025
Headline coef
-0.0036
Headline p-value
0.0883
First-stage F
15.65

Trust Guide

  • Trust most: diagnostics-backed estimator with strongest first-stage and transparent assumptions.
  • Use RD sharp estimates as eligibility ITT unless funding first-stage is strong enough for fuzzy RD.
  • Treat TWFE as benchmark sensitivity, not standalone causal proof.
Selected instrument passes the F ≥ 10 threshold.

Model Comparison

Rows shown: 6 / 6
estimator_family model outcome window term coef std_err p_value ci_95_lower ci_95_upper n_obs n_regions first_stage_f_stat is_headline_estimator
IV (cross-section) IV 2SLS cross-section (selected candidate) gdp_pc_real_growth post_2016_2020 erdf_eur_pc_cum_2014_2020 -0.003629 0.002129 0.088271 -0.007803 0.000544 265 265 15.653611 True
IV (panel) IV 2SLS panel (selected candidate) gdp_pc_real_growth panel erdf_eur_pc_l1 -0.087141 0.095267 0.360351 -0.273861 0.099580 1175 223 1.810335 False
RD (sharp ITT) Sharp RD bw=10.0 gdp_pc_real_growth post_2016_2020 eligible_lt75 -0.158809 1.375125 0.908059 -2.854005 2.536387 53 53 NaN False
TWFE Model A gdp_pc_real_growth panel erdf_eur_pc_l1 0.005680 0.003025 0.060399 -0.000248 0.011608 1175 223 NaN False
TWFE Model B gdp_pc_real_growth panel erdf_eur_pc_l1 0.003362 0.002888 0.244443 -0.002299 0.009023 1175 223 NaN False
TWFE-dynamic Model C (l1 term) gdp_pc_real_growth panel erdf_eur_pc_l1 0.011999 0.004850 0.013356 0.002494 0.021505 861 223 NaN False

Coverage by Year

Missingness Heatmap

Sample by Year

Rows shown: 40 / 40
year n_rows n_regions headline_non_missing
1986 398 398 0
1987 398 398 0
1988 398 398 0
1989 398 398 0
1990 398 398 0
1991 398 398 0
1992 398 398 0
1993 398 398 0
1994 398 398 0
1995 398 398 0
1996 398 398 0
1997 398 398 0
1998 398 398 0
1999 398 398 0
2000 398 398 0
2001 398 398 242
2002 398 398 242
2003 398 398 242
2004 398 398 242
2005 398 398 242
2006 398 398 242
2007 398 398 243
2008 398 398 243
2009 398 398 272
2010 398 398 272
2011 398 398 272
2012 398 398 272
2013 398 398 272
2014 398 398 272
2015 398 398 272
2016 398 398 272
2017 398 398 272
2018 398 398 272
2019 398 398 272
2020 398 398 272
2021 398 398 272
2022 398 398 269
2023 398 398 269
2024 398 398 0
2025 398 398 0

Sample by Country

Rows shown: 39 / 39
country n_regions n_rows headline_non_missing
FR 52 2080 621
UK 45 1800 0
DE 38 1520 874
TR 26 1040 390
PL 23 920 391
EL 22 880 299
IT 21 840 483
ES 19 760 437
NL 14 560 230
PT 12 480 92
NO 11 440 0
BE 11 440 253
HU 9 360 184
AT 9 360 207
CZ 8 320 184
RO 8 320 184
SE 8 320 184
CH 7 280 0
BG 6 240 138
DK 5 200 115
FI 5 200 115
HR 5 200 92
IE 5 200 69
SI 4 160 46
SK 4 160 92
RS 4 160 92
AL 3 120 39
LT 3 120 46
MT 1 40 23
MK 1 40 23
ME 1 40 17
LV 1 40 23
LU 1 40 23
LI 1 40 0
EU 1 40 0
EF 1 40 0
EE 1 40 23
CY 1 40 23
IS 1 40 0

Overview Table

Rows shown: 5 / 5
metric value
min_year 1986
max_year 2025
n_regions 398
n_rows 15920
headline_outcome gdp_pc_real_growth

Key Variable Definitions

Running variable: r = GDPpc_PPS / EU average × 100 (reference years 2007-2009; fallback <=2013).

Eligibility: eligible_lt75 = 1[r < 75], eligible_lt90 = 1[r < 90].

Exposure: erdf_eur_pc_l1 and cumulative erdf_eur_pc_cum_2014_2020.

Headline outcome: gdp_pc_real_growth.

Specification

Model A: outcome ~ erdf_l1 + controls + region FE + year FE

Model B: outcome ~ erdf_l1 + controls + region FE + country×year FE

Model C: outcome ~ erdf_l1 + erdf_l2 + erdf_l3 + controls + region FE + year FE

Dynamic Lag Plot

TWFE Main

Rows shown: 12 / 12
outcome model term coef std_err t_stat p_value ci_95_lower ci_95_upper n_obs n_regions fe_type clustering sample_year_min sample_year_max controls_used
gdp_pc_real_growth Model A erdf_eur_pc_l1 0.005680 0.003025 1.877873 6.039856e-02 -0.000248 0.011608 1175 223 year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_real_growth Model A unemp_rate -0.645481 0.083054 -7.771818 7.736728e-15 -0.808264 -0.482698 1175 223 year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_real_growth Model A emp_rate -0.311572 0.097518 -3.195020 1.398212e-03 -0.502704 -0.120440 1175 223 year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_real_growth Model A tertiary_share_25_64 -0.196250 0.092246 -2.127452 3.338256e-02 -0.377049 -0.015450 1175 223 year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_real_growth Model A rd_gerd -0.780868 0.538157 -1.451004 1.467787e-01 -1.835636 0.273900 1175 223 year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_real_growth Model A gva 0.143671 0.035563 4.039922 5.346901e-05 0.073969 0.213374 1175 223 year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_real_growth Model B erdf_eur_pc_l1 0.003362 0.002888 1.163952 2.444433e-01 -0.002299 0.009023 1175 223 country_year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_real_growth Model B unemp_rate 0.010578 0.104282 0.101436 9.192041e-01 -0.193811 0.214967 1175 223 country_year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_real_growth Model B emp_rate -0.040660 0.123919 -0.328117 7.428229e-01 -0.283536 0.202217 1175 223 country_year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_real_growth Model B tertiary_share_25_64 -0.101720 0.101736 -0.999845 3.173854e-01 -0.301119 0.097679 1175 223 country_year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_real_growth Model B rd_gerd -0.539994 0.601826 -0.897260 3.695802e-01 -1.719551 0.639563 1175 223 country_year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_real_growth Model B gva 0.220716 0.065134 3.388648 7.023807e-04 0.093056 0.348377 1175 223 country_year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva

Distributed Lags

Rows shown: 8 / 8
outcome model term coef std_err t_stat p_value ci_95_lower ci_95_upper n_obs n_regions fe_type clustering sample_year_min sample_year_max controls_used
gdp_pc_real_growth Model C erdf_eur_pc_l1 0.011999 0.004850 2.474144 0.013356 0.002494 0.021505 861 223 year nuts2 2019 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_real_growth Model C erdf_eur_pc_l2 0.007897 0.003778 2.089908 0.036626 0.000491 0.015302 861 223 year nuts2 2019 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_real_growth Model C erdf_eur_pc_l3 -0.003085 0.002665 -1.157747 0.246967 -0.008309 0.002138 861 223 year nuts2 2019 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_real_growth Model C unemp_rate -0.623873 0.152467 -4.091862 0.000043 -0.922702 -0.325044 861 223 year nuts2 2019 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_real_growth Model C emp_rate -0.276854 0.121080 -2.286541 0.022223 -0.514166 -0.039542 861 223 year nuts2 2019 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_real_growth Model C tertiary_share_25_64 -0.297705 0.129373 -2.301129 0.021384 -0.551272 -0.044138 861 223 year nuts2 2019 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_real_growth Model C rd_gerd -1.427459 0.723457 -1.973108 0.048483 -2.845409 -0.009509 861 223 year nuts2 2019 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_real_growth Model C gva 0.207709 0.051100 4.064715 0.000048 0.107554 0.307864 861 223 year nuts2 2019 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva

Funding Discontinuity (First Stage)

Outcome RD Sensitivity

Funding Jump Table

Rows shown: 6 / 6
bandwidth jump_coef std_err t_stat p_value ci_95_lower ci_95_upper n_obs n_left n_right first_stage_f_stat jump_over_sd fuzzy_rd_viable viability_reason
5.0 605.065522 582.900134 1.038026 0.299258 -537.397747 1747.528790 23 11 12 1.077498 2.372630 False funding jump imprecise/weak (first-stage F below 10)
7.5 628.143677 482.715678 1.301271 0.193166 -317.961667 1574.249020 41 18 23 1.693305 2.463126 False funding jump imprecise/weak (first-stage F below 10)
10.0 521.675581 405.834631 1.285439 0.198639 -273.745679 1317.096842 53 24 29 1.652353 2.045635 False funding jump imprecise/weak (first-stage F below 10)
12.5 406.564050 356.718003 1.139735 0.254397 -292.590388 1105.718489 65 26 39 1.298996 1.594251 False funding jump imprecise/weak (first-stage F below 10)
15.0 323.631425 308.232033 1.049960 0.293736 -280.492259 927.755109 78 32 46 1.102417 1.269049 False funding jump imprecise/weak (first-stage F below 10)
20.0 277.562241 251.486822 1.103685 0.269730 -215.342872 770.467353 95 39 56 1.218121 1.088399 False funding jump imprecise/weak (first-stage F below 10)

Sharp RD Outcomes

Rows shown: 4 / 4
outcome window bandwidth coef std_err t_stat p_value ci_95_lower ci_95_upper n_obs n_left n_right interpretation
gdp_pc_pps_growth post_2016_2020 10.0 -1.970790 1.536487 -1.282659 0.199611 -4.982249 1.040670 53 24 29 eligibility ITT effect (sharp RD at 75 cutoff)
gdp_pc_pps_growth post_2021_2023 10.0 2.840440 1.201786 2.363516 0.018102 0.484983 5.195897 53 24 29 eligibility ITT effect (sharp RD at 75 cutoff)
gdp_pc_real_growth post_2016_2020 10.0 -0.158809 1.375125 -0.115487 0.908059 -2.854005 2.536387 53 24 29 eligibility ITT effect (sharp RD at 75 cutoff)
gdp_pc_real_growth post_2021_2023 10.0 2.420227 0.975072 2.482100 0.013061 0.509120 4.331333 53 24 29 eligibility ITT effect (sharp RD at 75 cutoff)

Placebo Pretrend

Rows shown: 1 / 1
outcome window bandwidth coef std_err t_stat p_value ci_95_lower ci_95_upper n_obs n_left n_right interpretation
gdp_pc_real_growth pre_2010_2013 10.0 -1.941947 2.455542 -0.790842 0.429036 -6.754721 2.870828 53 24 29 placebo pretrend jump should be near zero
rd funding jump png
rd outcome png
Selected instrument passes the F ≥ 10 threshold.

Instrument Candidate Leaderboard

Rows shown: 8 / 8
candidate_id candidate_label sample_type spec_name endogenous_var instrument_var fe_spec controls_used n_obs n_regions coef std_err t_stat p_value f_stat partial_r2 status status_reason iv_first_stage_f_headline
Z1 eligible_lt75 × post2014 panel region_FE + year_FE erdf_eur_pc_l1 z1_post75 C(nuts2_id) + C(year) unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva 1175 223 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN failed instrument has no within-nuts2_id variation under FE NaN
Z4_75 eligible_lt75 (cross-section cumulative exposure) cross_section country_FE + pre_controls erdf_eur_pc_cum_2014_2020 eligible_lt75 C(country) log_gdp_pc_real_pre_2010_2013,unemp_rate_pre_2010_2013,emp_rate_pre_2010_2013 264 264 164.946046 50.403745 3.272496 0.001231 10.709229 0.044676 ok 4.599386
Z4_75 eligible_lt75 (cross-section cumulative exposure) cross_section country_FE + pre_controls erdf_eur_pc_cum_2015_2020 eligible_lt75 C(country) log_gdp_pc_real_pre_2010_2013,unemp_rate_pre_2010_2013,emp_rate_pre_2010_2013 264 264 164.946046 50.403745 3.272496 0.001231 10.709229 0.044676 ok 4.599386
Z4_90 eligible_lt90 (cross-section cumulative exposure) cross_section country_FE + pre_controls erdf_eur_pc_cum_2014_2020 eligible_lt90 C(country) log_gdp_pc_real_pre_2010_2013,unemp_rate_pre_2010_2013,emp_rate_pre_2010_2013 265 265 123.463932 39.825603 3.100115 0.002176 9.610710 0.040110 ok 15.653611
Z4_90 eligible_lt90 (cross-section cumulative exposure) cross_section country_FE + pre_controls erdf_eur_pc_cum_2015_2020 eligible_lt90 C(country) log_gdp_pc_real_pre_2010_2013,unemp_rate_pre_2010_2013,emp_rate_pre_2010_2013 265 265 123.463932 39.825603 3.100115 0.002176 9.610710 0.040110 ok 15.653611
Z5 eligible_lt90 × eu_mean_erdf_t panel region_FE + year_FE erdf_eur_pc_l1 z5_eu90 C(nuts2_id) + C(year) unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva 1175 223 0.144886 0.120613 1.201250 0.229654 1.443002 0.001610 ok NaN
Z2 eligible_lt75 × eu_mean_erdf_t panel region_FE + year_FE erdf_eur_pc_l1 z2_eu75 C(nuts2_id) + C(year) unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva 1175 223 0.163688 0.147836 1.107222 0.268198 1.225941 0.001804 ok NaN
Z3 eligible_lt75 × country_mean_erdf_t_loo panel region_FE + year_FE erdf_eur_pc_l1 z3_country75 C(nuts2_id) + C(year) unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva 1131 216 -0.060115 0.056913 -1.056254 0.290852 1.115672 0.001873 ok NaN

First-stage Scatter

Panel IV Results

Rows shown: 1 / 1
outcome model sample_type term instrument coef std_err t_stat p_value ci_95_lower ci_95_upper first_stage_f_stat n_obs n_regions sample_year_min sample_year_max controls_used fe_spec
gdp_pc_real_growth IV 2SLS panel (selected candidate) panel erdf_eur_pc_l1 z5_eu90 -0.087141 0.095267 -0.914697 0.360351 -0.273861 0.09958 1.810335 1175 223 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva region_FE + year_FE

Cross-section IV Results

Rows shown: 4 / 4
outcome window model sample_type term instrument coef std_err t_stat p_value ci_95_lower ci_95_upper first_stage_f_stat n_obs n_regions controls_used fe_spec
gdp_pc_real_growth post_2016_2020 IV 2SLS cross-section (selected candidate) cross_section erdf_eur_pc_cum_2014_2020 eligible_lt90 -0.003629 0.002129 -1.704590 0.088271 -0.007803 0.000544 15.653611 265 265 log_gdp_pc_real_pre_2010_2013,unemp_rate_pre_2010_2013,emp_rate_pre_2010_2013 country_FE
gdp_pc_real_growth post_2021_2023 IV 2SLS cross-section (selected candidate) cross_section erdf_eur_pc_cum_2014_2020 eligible_lt90 -0.005085 0.002798 -1.817175 0.069190 -0.010570 0.000400 15.653611 265 265 log_gdp_pc_real_pre_2010_2013,unemp_rate_pre_2010_2013,emp_rate_pre_2010_2013 country_FE
gdp_pc_pps_growth post_2016_2020 IV 2SLS cross-section (selected candidate) cross_section erdf_eur_pc_cum_2014_2020 eligible_lt90 -0.002467 0.001670 -1.477074 0.139656 -0.005741 0.000807 15.653611 265 265 log_gdp_pc_real_pre_2010_2013,unemp_rate_pre_2010_2013,emp_rate_pre_2010_2013 country_FE
gdp_pc_pps_growth post_2021_2023 IV 2SLS cross-section (selected candidate) cross_section erdf_eur_pc_cum_2014_2020 eligible_lt90 -0.000998 0.002209 -0.452017 0.651256 -0.005327 0.003330 15.653611 265 265 log_gdp_pc_real_pre_2010_2013,unemp_rate_pre_2010_2013,emp_rate_pre_2010_2013 country_FE
iv first stage scatter png

Robustness Table

Rows shown: 6 / 6
outcome model term coef std_err t_stat p_value ci_95_lower ci_95_upper n_obs n_regions fe_type clustering sample_year_min sample_year_max controls_used outlier_rule erdf_eur_pc_global_p99 balanced_window_start balanced_window_end balanced_regions treatment_scale
gdp_pc_real_growth Model A (outliers excluded) erdf_eur_pc_l1 0.006324 0.003033 2.084936 0.037075 0.000379 0.012268 1156 223 year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva drop global top 1% erdf_eur_pc 264.108343 NaN NaN NaN NaN
gdp_pc_real_growth Model B (outliers excluded) erdf_eur_pc_l1 0.003256 0.002984 1.091103 0.275227 -0.002593 0.009104 1156 223 country_year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva drop global top 1% erdf_eur_pc 264.108343 NaN NaN NaN NaN
gdp_pc_real_growth Model A (balanced panel) erdf_eur_pc_l1 0.005542 0.003063 1.809299 0.070405 -0.000462 0.011546 805 115 year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva NaN NaN 2017.0 2023.0 115.0 NaN
gdp_pc_real_growth Model B (balanced panel) erdf_eur_pc_l1 0.002715 0.003029 0.896323 0.370080 -0.003222 0.008652 805 115 country_year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva NaN NaN 2017.0 2023.0 115.0 NaN
gdp_pc_real_growth Model A (scaled treatment) erdf_k_eur_pc_l1 5.679637 3.024506 1.877873 0.060399 -0.248285 11.607559 1175 223 year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN EUR 1,000 per capita
gdp_pc_real_growth Model B (scaled treatment) erdf_k_eur_pc_l1 3.361760 2.888228 1.163952 0.244443 -2.299063 9.022584 1175 223 country_year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN EUR 1,000 per capita

Outcome Robustness (Real vs PPS)

Rows shown: 6 / 6
outcome model coef std_err p_value n_obs n_regions
gdp_pc_real_growth Model A 0.005680 0.003025 0.060399 1175 223
gdp_pc_real_growth Model B 0.003362 0.002888 0.244443 1175 223
gdp_pc_pps_growth Model A 0.002522 0.003617 0.485532 1175 223
gdp_pc_pps_growth Model B 0.001134 0.002851 0.690810 1175 223
gdp_pc_growth Model A 0.002075 0.003657 0.570518 1175 223
gdp_pc_growth Model B 0.003646 0.004183 0.383407 1175 223

Sigma Convergence

Beta Convergence

Rows shown: 34 / 34
outcome model term coef std_err t_stat p_value ci_95_lower ci_95_upper n_obs n_regions fe_type clustering sample_year_min sample_year_max controls_used
gdp_pc_real_growth Model D log_gdp_pc_real_l1 -5.267283 0.602008 -8.749527 2.142487e-18 -6.447197 -4.087370 6012 272 year nuts2 2001 2023
gdp_pc_real_growth Model E log_gdp_pc_real_l1 -103.618010 1.785512 -58.032653 0.000000e+00 -107.117550 -100.118470 1175 223 year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_real_growth Model E erdf_eur_pc_l1 -0.010347 0.019129 -0.540894 5.885808e-01 -0.047840 0.027146 1175 223 year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_real_growth Model E erdf_eur_pc_l1:log_gdp_pc_real_l1 0.001197 0.002027 0.590463 5.548802e-01 -0.002776 0.005169 1175 223 year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_real_growth Model E unemp_rate -0.070479 0.061746 -1.141445 2.536847e-01 -0.191499 0.050540 1175 223 year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_real_growth Model E emp_rate 0.035694 0.042576 0.838360 4.018284e-01 -0.047754 0.119142 1175 223 year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_real_growth Model E tertiary_share_25_64 -0.025351 0.029103 -0.871060 3.837213e-01 -0.082392 0.031691 1175 223 year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_real_growth Model E rd_gerd 0.233428 0.200718 1.162964 2.448443e-01 -0.159972 0.626828 1175 223 year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_real_growth Model E gva 0.819057 0.026602 30.788784 3.702864e-208 0.766917 0.871197 1175 223 year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_real_growth Model E (country-year FE) log_gdp_pc_real_l1 -101.340054 2.976162 -34.050586 3.978591e-254 -107.173224 -95.506884 1175 223 country_year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_real_growth Model E (country-year FE) erdf_eur_pc_l1 0.030058 0.025919 1.159668 2.461839e-01 -0.020743 0.080859 1175 223 country_year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_real_growth Model E (country-year FE) erdf_eur_pc_l1:log_gdp_pc_real_l1 -0.003032 0.002648 -1.145086 2.521736e-01 -0.008222 0.002158 1175 223 country_year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_real_growth Model E (country-year FE) unemp_rate 0.038362 0.076465 0.501698 6.158801e-01 -0.111506 0.188230 1175 223 country_year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_real_growth Model E (country-year FE) emp_rate 0.058033 0.059142 0.981258 3.264655e-01 -0.057882 0.173949 1175 223 country_year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_real_growth Model E (country-year FE) tertiary_share_25_64 -0.038208 0.022010 -1.735898 8.258192e-02 -0.081347 0.004932 1175 223 country_year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_real_growth Model E (country-year FE) rd_gerd 0.131189 0.188324 0.696612 4.860457e-01 -0.237919 0.500296 1175 223 country_year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_real_growth Model E (country-year FE) gva 0.832225 0.037628 22.117185 2.159915e-108 0.758476 0.905975 1175 223 country_year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_pps_growth Model D log_gdp_pc_pps_l1 -7.724735 0.435866 -17.722744 2.799174e-70 -8.579015 -6.870454 6218 292 year nuts2 2001 2023
gdp_pc_pps_growth Model E log_gdp_pc_pps_l1 -52.178507 6.741167 -7.740278 9.919962e-15 -65.390952 -38.966063 1175 223 year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_pps_growth Model E erdf_eur_pc_l1 -0.015846 0.088078 -0.179914 8.572202e-01 -0.188476 0.156783 1175 223 year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_pps_growth Model E erdf_eur_pc_l1:log_gdp_pc_pps_l1 0.001914 0.008857 0.216114 8.288986e-01 -0.015446 0.019274 1175 223 year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_pps_growth Model E unemp_rate -0.371136 0.086686 -4.281399 1.857220e-05 -0.541036 -0.201235 1175 223 year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_pps_growth Model E emp_rate -0.031546 0.128419 -0.245651 8.059522e-01 -0.283242 0.220150 1175 223 year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_pps_growth Model E tertiary_share_25_64 -0.406706 0.094194 -4.317739 1.576355e-05 -0.591323 -0.222088 1175 223 year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_pps_growth Model E rd_gerd -1.072647 0.617415 -1.737319 8.233096e-02 -2.282759 0.137465 1175 223 year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_pps_growth Model E gva 0.371331 0.066120 5.615996 1.954328e-08 0.241738 0.500924 1175 223 year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_pps_growth Model E (country-year FE) log_gdp_pc_pps_l1 -56.803175 5.619697 -10.107871 5.097999e-24 -67.817579 -45.788771 1175 223 country_year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_pps_growth Model E (country-year FE) erdf_eur_pc_l1 -0.018215 0.062550 -0.291207 7.708930e-01 -0.140811 0.104381 1175 223 country_year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_pps_growth Model E (country-year FE) erdf_eur_pc_l1:log_gdp_pc_pps_l1 0.001788 0.006265 0.285369 7.753618e-01 -0.010491 0.014067 1175 223 country_year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_pps_growth Model E (country-year FE) unemp_rate -0.046387 0.109807 -0.422438 6.727057e-01 -0.261605 0.168832 1175 223 country_year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_pps_growth Model E (country-year FE) emp_rate 0.100771 0.128720 0.782876 4.336999e-01 -0.151514 0.353057 1175 223 country_year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_pps_growth Model E (country-year FE) tertiary_share_25_64 -0.186769 0.075992 -2.457730 1.398184e-02 -0.335711 -0.037826 1175 223 country_year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_pps_growth Model E (country-year FE) rd_gerd -0.830514 0.577538 -1.438025 1.504269e-01 -1.962467 0.301439 1175 223 country_year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva
gdp_pc_pps_growth Model E (country-year FE) gva 0.273376 0.069326 3.943330 8.035797e-05 0.137499 0.409252 1175 223 country_year nuts2 2017 2023 unemp_rate,emp_rate,tertiary_share_25_64,rd_gerd,gva

Limitations

  • Real GDP per capita is reconstructed from volume indices, not direct chain-linked real EUR levels.
  • Eligibility and running-variable coverage is partial because of NUTS coverage differences.
  • Interpret RD as eligibility ITT unless funding first-stage is strong.
  • Interpret IV as causal only when first-stage diagnostics are strong and stable.

Interpretation Guardrails

Supported claims

Associations and policy-rule-based estimates under the maintained exclusion assumptions and observed first-stage strength diagnostics.

Unsupported claims

Universal structural treatment effects across all regions/times, especially when first-stage strength falls below conventional thresholds.

Next steps

Strengthen external instrument design (national envelopes/programmatic shocks), harmonize category coverage under NUTS revisions, and test alternative deflators/PPS-based real outcomes.